On variable ordination of modified Cholesky decomposition for estimating time-varying covariance matrices

Estimating time-varying covariance matrices of the vector of interest is challenging both computationally and statistically due to a large number of constrained parameters. In this work, we consider an order-averaged Cholesky-log-GARCH (OA-CLGARCH) model for estimating time-varying covariance matrices through the orthogonal transformations of the vector based on the modified Cholesky decomposition. The proposed method is to transform the vector at each time as a linear transformation of uncorrelated latent variables and then to use simple univariate GARCH models to model them separately. But the modified Cholesky decomposition relies on a given order of variables, which is often not available, to sequentially orthogonalize the variables. The proposed method develops an order-averaged strategy for the Cholesky-GARCH method to alleviate the effect of order of variables. The merits of the proposed method are illustrated through simulations and real-data studies.     

Children’s Food Choice: Advertised Food Type,Health Knowledge and Entertainment

The purpose of this research is to examine how the moderating effects of health knowledge (inactive vs. active) and advertising’s entertainment level (high vs. low) affect children’s response to advertising’s food content (unhealthy vs. healthy). First, a primary study using the qualitative method was conducted with the purpose of identifying healthy and unhealthy food options based on culture, eating habits, nutritional value and the access of Iranian children to each option so that they could be displayed in TV advertising, advergames and questionnaires. Then, a 2 × 2 × 2 full-factorial, randomized, mixed-effects experimental design was used to test the research framework. 330 students (aged 6–11) participated in the study. The findings revealed that children tended to choose more unhealthy foods after exposure to unhealthy food advertising. This effect was greater for a higher level of entertainment, and was successfully moderated by the activation of health knowledge. It was concluded that embedding health messages in advertising (included TV advertising and advergames) help retrieving children’s health knowledge and therefore, choosing less unhealthy food by them.     

On the asymmetric effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade

We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short-run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one-third of the trade.     

Bangladesh’s trade partners and the J-curve: an asymmetry analysis

Separating currency appreciations from depreciations and using non-linear models in recent literature have improved discovering significant link between the trade balance and the exchange rate. We add to this growing literature by considering the experience of Bangladesh with 11 trading partners. When a linear model was used, support for the J-curve effect was present only with one small partner. However, when a non-linear model was used, support increased to three countries including the largest partner, the United States, which accounts for more than 12% of Bangladesh’s trade. Furthermore, the non-linear models supported short-run asymmetry adjustment as well as short-run asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes in most cases. However, long-run asymmetric effects were limited to a few.     

Statistical Approaches to Forecasting Domestic Energy Consumption and Assessing Determinants: The Case of Nordic Countries

The residential sector accounts for large share of total annual energy use in the Nordic countries due to the extremely cold climates and high household heating demand. Most domestic energy consumption in the Nordic countries is for space heating and providing hot water. The purpose of our study was to forecast the annual energy consumption of the Nordic residential sectors by 2020 as a function of socio-economic and environmental factors, and to offer a framework for the predictors in each country.

Our research models the domestic energy use in Nordic countries based on social, economic and environmental factors. Applying the multiple linear regression (MLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and the artificial neural network (ANN) analysis methodologies, three models have been generated for each country in the Nordic region. Using these models, we forecasted the Nordic countries domestic energy use by 2020 and assessed the causal links between energy consumption and the investigated predictors. The results showed that the ANN models have a superior capability of forecasting the domestic energy use and specifying the importance of predictors compared to the regression models. The models revealed that changes in population, unemployment rate, work force, urban population, and the amount of CO₂ emissions from the residential sectors can cause significant variations in Nordic domestic sector energy use.     

Moving Up or Falling Behind? Gender,Promotions, and Wages in Canada

We estimate that Canadian women working full time are 1.8 percentage points less likely to be promoted, receive fewer promotions, and experience 2.8 percent less wage growth following promotions than similar men. Significant “family gaps” exist among women. Women without children are less likely to have been promoted than similar men but experience similar wage growth following promotions, while women with children are as likely to have been promoted but experience less wage growth following promotions. Weekly hours and overtime hours explain significant fractions of these gender gaps. Though not precisely estimated, gender gaps in promotions also exist among part‐time workers.     

Non-linear quantile unit root test and PPP: more evidence from Africa

It is now a common practice to establish stationarity of the real exchange rate as a sign of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In this article, we consider the real effective exchange rates of 29 African countries. When we apply conventional linear unit root tests, we find support for the PPP in eight countries. However, when we shift to the newly introduced non-linear quantile unit root test, support for the PPP increases to 15 countries.     

Facilitating knowledge management strategies through IT and HRM

In an increasingly competitive environment, where new business practices are regularly introduced, organizations have to be innovative to survive. In the present competitive climate, knowledge is considered as the main distinguishing factor of business success, and it is seen as the foundation of organization＇s innovation. The emergence of knowledge-intensive society has changed the nature of business competition. Hence knowledge needs to be appropriately managed. Knowledge Management （KM） focuses on managing different knowledge processes such as acquiring, creating, storing, sharing, transferring and applying implicit and explicit knowledge with objective of product and process innovation, performance development and sustainable competitive advantage. This paper tries to demonstrate KM lead to promotion of innovation and performance when it is correctly supported by human resource management （HRM） and information technology （IT）. The questions we will try to investigate in this paper are： How knowledge in organizations can be managed？ What is the connection between HRM, IT and effective implementation knowledge management strategies and how these relationships affect on organizational goals？ For this means, this study ftrst states the importance of knowledge, KM process and introduces two strategies for managing knowledge （exploitative and explorative strategy）. Next, it demonstrates each strategy requires to desired facilitator to support them in action. Finally, with presenting of model, this study concludes that each one of strategy can cover some KM process. Hence for the effective implementation of knowledge management process, organizations have to utilize both strategies.     

Do inpayments and outpayments respond to exchange rate changes asymmetrically: Evidence from Malaysia

Since the pass-through of exchange rate changes on import and export prices are asymmetric, we expect a country’s inpayments (export earnings) and outpayments (cost of imports) to also react to exchange rate changes asymmetrically. We demonstrate this hypothesis by considering trade between Malaysia and each of her 11 largest trading partners. We find that while the short-run effects of exchange rate changes on Malaysia’s inpayments and outpayments are asymmetric with all partners, the long-run asymmetric effects are present in less than half of the partners. The results are partner specific.     

A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade

Cushman suggested that impact of exchange rate volatility declines after the inclusion of the third-country effect. Like Cushman, when we use a linear analysis, we confirm his results. However, when we engage in asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility which requires including nonlinear adjustment of volatility measures, the findings show more support to both exchange rate volatility influence and the third-country effect. Therefore, we propose that in examining exchange rate volatility effect on trade, consideration must be given to not just asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility but also asymmetric effects of the third-country effect. We demonstrate these findings using monthly data from 54 Malaysian industries that export to the US and 63 Malaysian industries that import from the US.